Ne zelim pricati o smislu

(c/p)
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Kolokvij Instituta Ruðer Bo¹koviæKolokvij Hrvatskog biofizièkog dru¹tva
A BAYESIAN TRUTH SERUM FOR SUBJECTIVE DATA
Prof. Dra¾en Prelec, Sloan School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge, Massachusetts, SAD
Srijeda, 04. svibnja u 16.00 sati, Predavaonica III krila, Institut RuðerBo¹koviæ, Bijenièka c. 54, Zagreb
Subjective judgment, from expert and lay sources, is a part of all human knowledge. Surveys of behaviors, attitudes, and intentions are standard inpolitical science, psychology and economics; subjective expert judgmentcontrols environmental risk analysis, public policy, economic forecasts,scientific hypotheses, military doctrine, artistic and legal interpretations. Although essential for science and policy, subjective judgment is also problematic, because it is hard to know if experts' judgments are truthful - stated without deception or self-deception - and whether what the experts are saying is true. Hence, there is both a problem of truthfulness and of truth.
I present a scoring method for collecting subjective data (forecasts,estimates) from experts, designed for situations where objective truth isintrinsically or practically unknowable. In this situation, the opinions of other experts provide the only index of judgmental quality. The method assigns high scores, not to the most common answers, but to answers that are 'more common than collectively predicted,' with predictions drawn from the same group that generates the answers. This simple adjustment in the scoring criterion removes any potential bias in favor of the 'average opinion.' Truthful answers maximize expected score even for an expert - a 'Cassandra'- who is sure that her judgment represents a minority view.
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Sada smo jako stari skupa
ulica je nekako veča

od popodneva sve skupa
k vragu šalju
potajno
potiho

mi nismo živčani kao oni
tiho sjaji naša klima
topla je i ugodna

milo smo gradjenje kula i karata
ostavili po strani
kada doživimo stotu

jeftinija je stanarina
sada useli se
u moje oblikovano srce
šareno
zimzeleno

imamo četrdesetipet godina
ti i ja zbrojeni
zaljubljeni

ti i ja sa usnama
vučemo sanjke i čekamo
bijelo da padne.

;)) glavno da nam imas nesta za rec ...

Jesi ti Slavonac ili Dalmatinac? Stalno pišeš NEŠTA a trebaš pisati NEŠTO jebote daj se nauči pisati a ne samo kopi pejstati!

jel ima koji takav seminar za pocetnike?
npr. moral,moralnost i civilizirano ponasanje za pocetak

Kaj si ti razmela ovaj tekst? Ja nisam.

Anabell - sa takvom tematikom se ne održavaju već jaaaaako dugo. Nema interesa :(

:PP ma to je c/p i nastalo pri citanju poste u pineu.....

guba. ima di još kaj o tome, su probali već implementirat?